PHASE 2 · DRY RUN

Polymarket Signal Engine

Real-time detection of pricing inefficiencies, whale flows, arbitrage opportunities, and news-driven signals across 1,000+ prediction markets.

Markets Tracked

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active prediction markets

Price Ticks

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real-time updates

Whale Trades

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$1k+ detected

Arb Opps

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cross-market

Sniper Trades

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DRY RUN + live

Signal Modules

9

scanning 24/7

Recent Activity LIVE

Type	Question	Side	Price	Cost	Max Win	Live $	Unreal	End	Days	Hours	Status	P/L
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All Sniper Trades DRY RUN + LIVE

Sva kupovina koju je signal engine napravio. DRY_RUN = demo (ne pravi novac). Kad faza postane LIVE — pravi USDC.

#	Hours	Signal	Market	Side	Shares	Price	Cost	Max Win	Live $	Unreal	Payout	End	Days Left	Status	P/L
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Top Tracked Markets by volume

Question	Category	Volume	Liquidity	Polymarket
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Overall Performance

Total Trades

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Wins

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Losses

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Pending

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Total Cost

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Net P/L

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By Signal Type

Signal	Trades	W/L/Pending	WR	Cost	P/L	ROI
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Fee Breakdown

Polymarket Fees (automatic deduction):

LP Winning Fee: 2% — on profit (gross - cost) × 0.02
Gas per Claim: $0.05 — Polygon redeem transaction
Buy Slippage: built in cost — we buy at ask + 0.04-0.05
USDC Deposit/Withdrawal — no fees (direct Polygon)

Net Profit formula: net = (size × $1) − (gross_profit × 0.02) − $0.05_gas − original_cost

Market Maker DRY RUN

Sustav postavlja 2-way limit orders (BUY + SELL) oko mid cijene. Zarada = spread × shares po popunjenom paru. DRY RUN simulira fills kad tržište prođe kroz našu cijenu.

Active Quotes

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Filled

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Stale

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Round Trips

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Spread P/L

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Recent Quotes

#	Time	Market	Side	Dir	Our Price	Mid	Size	Notional	Status	Fill $
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Round Trips by Market

Market	Active	Fills	Buy Cost	Sell Rev	Profit
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Ovaj tab je LIVE scan — pokazuje neg-risk arb prilike koje skener vidi prav sada. Prazno = efikasna tržišta trenutno. Povijest auto-executed DRY arbitraža → Arb Executed tab.

Neg-Risk Arbitrage LIVE SCAN

Matematički garantirane arbitraže na multi-outcome eventima. Polymarket garantira "samo 1 pobjeđuje", pa ako zbroj svih YES askova < $1 → risk-free profit kupnjom svih ishoda.

Scan uzima ~2-3 min (hits CLOB API per market)

Opportunities

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Best Edge

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Total Volume

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Click "Rescan Now" to search for arbitrage opportunities

Arb Executions DRY RUN

Stvarno izvršene neg-risk arbitraže. Kupljena svaka outcome, garantirani payout $1 po bundle-u.

#	Event	Shares	Markets	Cost	Exp. Payout	Exp. Profit	Edge	Status	Actual P/L	Executed
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ARHIVA — STRATEGIJA ODBAČENA (23.04.2026)

9h Phase 1 recording pokazao: ρ(CEX→PM) ≈ −0.03, 0 signala u 9h, sigmoid fair_value 266% gori od baseline. Teza da Binance vodi Polymarket na 15-min horizontu NE stoji. Service ugašen, data arhivirana u /opt/aibeting/polymarket_leadlag_bot/phase1_data_9h_20260423.tar.gz. Fokus premješten na neg-risk arbitraže (tab Neg-Risk Arb).

Lead-Lag V1 PHASE 1 RECORDER ?

Polymarket BTC 15m slot vs Binance bookTicker. 5Hz event loop, detektira lag i edge (sigmoid fair value). Phase 1 = čisti recorder, no trading.

Zadnji feature tick LIVE

Signal distribucija

Counts

Zadnji non-HOLD

Zadnjih 20 feature redova

Rotate log

Active Signal Modules 9 ACTIVE

🎯 Orderbook Depth

Detects imbalanced liquidity between bid/ask sides. Large ask imbalance → price likely to rise.

📊 Volume Spike

Unusual trading activity (z-score > 2). New information entering the market.

🐋 Whale Flow

Tracks $10k+ trades on 4-hour rolling window. Large wallets often have information edge.

₿ Oracle Crypto

Compares Polymarket crypto prediction vs real BTC/ETH price (Chainlink). Mispricings are short-lived.

☀️ Oracle Weather

Weather forecast discrepancy (min 10% edge). Slow-moving markets.

⚖️ Cross-Market Arbitrage

Complete-set & event-ladder detection. Risk-free profit if > 3% edge.

🚀 Orderbook Sweep

Large aggressive market orders that move price through multiple levels.

📰 News Feed

RSS + Reddit + NLP sentiment. 15-30 signals/scan. First-mover advantage.

⏳ Inefficiency

Stale markets, crypto_lag, correlated_lag — price hasn't updated despite news/volume changes.

API Endpoints

Endpoint	Opis
/api/sniper/stats	Ukupni brojevi
/api/sniper/signals	Sva sniper trades
/api/sniper/markets	Top 100 markets
/api/sniper/performance	Performance po signal_type